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The Crisis in the Property Insurance Industry 

by Ramon Griffin

The following article was written by  Ramon Griffin and was published in Real Estate Educator Association (REEA) Journal (Vol. 4 Number 1)  Copyright© 2003 and is reprinted with their permission.
The property and casualty insurance industry is, just as any industry, in business to make a profit. This means that for any individual insurance company, the premium dollars received must equal the losses paid out (including court awards, legal costs, and settlements), plus a margin for the cost of doing business and profit. It may not be economically feasible for a company to provide coverage which does not at least pay for itself. Nevertheless, consumers demand that property and casualty insurance companies provide coverage at rates "acceptable"  to the consumer when doing so places these companies at financial risk.

The following news story excerpts illustrate the magnitude of the problem faced by the property and casualty insurance companies.

"Texas insurers have paid out $4 billion in mold claims over the past three years, according to a new study released by the Insurance Council of Texas." ("Texas Mold Claims Pass $4 Billion," A.M. Best via Comtex, May 21, 2003.)

"According to Industry Outlook 2003, a survey by National Marketing Services Inc. of more than 200 North American insurance executives, more than 80% expected insurers to either limit coverage or cancel coverage altogether as  a  result  of  mold  claims."   (BestWire,  April  30,  2003   By R.J. Lehmann, associate editor: raymond.lehmann@ambest.com, www.globalreinsurance.com/default.asp?menuid=1126.)

"State Farm, which in September 2001 stopped writing homeowners insurance policies for new customers in Texas, said...it would no longer offer coverage to its existing policyholders who move into a different home in the state." ("State Farm to stop covering current customers who move." abclocal.go.com/ ktrk/news/40403_state_insurance.html)

"As at least 18 states recover from more than 400 tornadoes, insurers are facing what could be the largest loss ever from such a storm system with one catastrophe-modeling company estimating the insured loss could exceed $2.2 billion." (Twister Damage May Surpass $2.2 Billion in Insured Loss," www.globalreinsurance.com/default. asp?menuid=1126)

Clearly, the costs of covering perils have increased dramatically. Insurance company revenues must be increased, expenses decreased or both. Failure of a property and casualty (P&C) company is not necessarily to the benefit of either the company, company shareholders, or the consumer. In the example of State Farm, the down rating of the company financials by A.M. Best and Standard and Poors increases its cost of debt which translates into an increased cost of doing business. One of the decisions that the company has made is to reduce potential losses by reducing its exposure in the state by reducing the number of homes insured. State Farm succeeded in obtaining approximately a one third market share but now finds its success a burden rather than an asset. For the company, this is a rational reaction to what could very well be an unsustainable loss situation. For consumers, home buyers, and real estate licensees, this is a very difficult situation.

DEALING WITH RISK
Insurance firms have five methods of dealing with risk: acceptance, avoidance, reduction, pooling and transfer.

With acceptance, the insurance companies determine that the risk or severity of loss from a peril is either not worth the costs, or the cost to transfer the risk to an insurance company is too high.

With avoidance, the insurance firm avoids the risk of loss by hurricane by moving to Montana or avoiding snow-related losses by moving to Florida or Southern California.

As an example of reduction, a firm can reduce the risk of mold, for example, by doing its best to assure that property owners have no interior water or condensation problems. This may require that in mold prevalent areas, property owners vent with fans, or have bathrooms with windows even though the local building codes may not require such ventilation. As another example, firms can reduce risk by providing incentives for property homeowners to avoid catastrophic loss by house fire by installing fire detector/alarm systems. Property owners can further reduce the risk by installing a home sprinkler system. Home owners living in high fire risk areas could reduce the risk of loss by fire by not building homes with cedar siding and cedar shake roofs. Poured concrete insulated exterior walls with a fire "proof"— not fire "resistant" roof treatment— a substantial higher survival rate in a high fire area and may very well merit lower insurance premiums.

Pooling of risk on the part of the insurance company is sharing the risk of loss where the companies purchase reinsurance coverage from reinsurance companies or from groups which share the risk of loss in some proportion and also share the premiums.

Transfer of loss to shareholders and to some policy holders is another method of avoiding risk. Transfer is what happened when eleven companies went bankrupt following hurricane Andrew.

INSURANCE COMPANIES' GUIDING PRINCIPLES
There are a number of guiding principles which govern the actions that are taken by insurance companies. The following list will help the reader to understand what underlies the decision making process (underwriting) of the P&C industry.

1. Probability and the law of large numbers. This "law" is based on the statistical concept that the more similar events you have to deal with, the more accurate will be your forecast of the future occurrence of any one event. Example: At best, we can make only the most general guess as to whether a particular house will be destroyed by perils of fire, flood, earthquake, or tornado. However, if we were to look at a group of houses, the larger the group the better, we can make some reasonably accurate estimates of the number of houses in the group that would be affected by the perils listed. Within some limits, the larger the group sample, the more accurate the estimate. Life insurance is the ultimate accuracy as the sample is almost the entire universe of deaths. Even there, the life insurance industry was surprised by the AIDs epidemic as such sudden onset epidemics cannot be anticipated.

2. Risk pooling. This principle is related to the law of large numbers. The insurer collects relatively modest premiums from a large number of insureds to create a financial resource pool from which the insureds who have an insured loss may be reimbursed (indemnified).

3. Principle of indemnity. This principle means that the insurance company is willing to compensate an insured loss to a maximum of its financial value. In other words, no matter how much insurance you purchase, the insurance company will not knowingly pay you more for a loss than its current value (either depreciated [actual cash value] or replacement value if that is the coverage purchased).

4. Insurable risk. This risk subjects an individual to the possibility of economic or financial loss.

5. Fortuitous loss. This principle means that the loss is typically unexpected, unplanned, and generally sudden. A tornado is an example of fortuitous loss.

6. Reasonable costs.
These are the costs to the consumer as to the amount of premiums. The more persons purchasing a particular coverage may very well reduce the individual purchasers costs if the overall amount of loss is not expected to change.

7. Catastrophic/Non-catastrophic loss. An individual desires to protect against the catastrophic loss while the insurance company desires to avoid a catastrophic loss.

REGULATION
The history of the development of property and casualty insurance differs from many other businesses in that there is relatively little regulation of the industry at the national level. The McCarran-Ferguson Act (passed by Congress some 58 years ago), reads, “No act of Congress shall be construed to invalidate, impair or supersede any law enacted by any state for the purpose of regulating the business of insurance... unless such act specifically relates to the business of insurance.”

The effect of this act is the diverse regulation seen in the various coverages and state requirements for insurance companies in the various states. The major differences are generally found in automobile and health insurance coverages where states have mandated that the companies doing business in that state provide various coverages usually defined by the state legislature. The only way that companies could avoid providing the coverages was to cease doing business in the state in question.

The various states have also mandated some coverages in homeowners insurance. For example, Texas does not use the traditional HO-1 and HO-2 homeowners policies but has created HO-A, HO-B, and HO-C. It appears, on a brief review, that the HO-B and HO-C coverage has allowed the filing of the very costly mold claims in Texas which would not necessarily occur in states that basically use the traditional Home Owners policies.

The exceptions to this primarily hands-off policy at the federal level are the federally-backed Flood and Fair Access to Insurance Requirements coverage (commonly called a FAIR Plan).

Flood insurance (1968) is offered now because the Federal Insurance Administration manages and subsidizes the cost for any community that meets the established requirements. The FAIR plan coverage was also created in 1968 as a riot reinsurance plan. This was after riots in major cities made property insurance difficult or impossible to obtain in certain urban areas.

Even these coverages are not mandated by the federal government in a direct manner. Both plans typically require that either the community and/or the state create a set of regulations complying with the federal requirements before the plans can be implemented. The federal government has also provided some incentives such as not providing federal flood disaster assistance unless adequate flood insurance had been purchased.

A FAIR plan requires that insurance companies who write property insurance doing business in the state must offer property insurance coverage in economically depressed areas in the same proportion as their participation in the total state property insurance market. Reinsurance is a requirement and the federal government (HUD) stands ready to provide additional reinsurance against exceptional losses. The concept of the coverage has been expanded to basically allow participation of any property owner who either could not obtain coverage or that the state determined that rates were too high.

All states do not have a FAIR plan and others have only limited plans. For example: The Texas legislature has just recently (2002) created a FAIR plan in response to the major mold losses and loss of coverage by homeowners.

The reason for the federal backing was a little-realized concept of adverse selection, a concept well known in the insurance industry. Adverse selection means that the primary purchasers of insurance coverage will be the persons most at risk from a particular peril. This situation leaves the insurance company in a position of very high (potentially catastrophic) expected loses. This translates into extremely high premiums for the individual consumer. This basically means that the insurance company will not offer coverage that is essentially not affordable by the persons desiring coverage. With the entry of the Federal Flood insurance program, all properties within defined flood risk areas are required to obtain flood insurance by the lenders, not just properties in river bottoms that could expect to be flooded every fourth or fifth year. This means that properties which have a relatively low risk of flooding are grouped with properties with higher risk of flooding. Therefore, the total expected flood loss for all properties is low enough that insurance companies can offer the coverage at reasonable rates. (In addition, the federal government is forcing the relocation of entire towns in frequently flooded areas, which further reduces the expected losses.)

Another difficulty that property insurance companies face is a major forecasting problem. While forecasting home fire and automobile losses is relatively simple and accurate, the forecasting of losses from acts of Mother Nature is far less dependable. Hurricane Andrew, which struck South Florida in 1992, was the cause of several regional P&C insurance companies going into bankruptcy and ultimately out of business. This also forced a large number of homeowners into costly FAIR plan coverage.

The ultimate fear of a P&C company is a catastrophic loss to the company. Even major national P&C companies were hit hard financially and frightened by the results of Andrew' destructive path. Insurance companies reacted by refusing to renew homeowners' contracts and revoked thousands of existing policies. Eleven insurance companies filed for bankruptcy and dozens of others lost significant financial reserves.

The Florida legislature actually passed legislation restricting the number of HO policies that a company could cancel or not renew to protect the state-funded Insurance of Last Resort plan. Surviving P&C companies embarked on draconian programs of cutting their risk exposure.

Texas insurance companies have significant legal costs and awards by the courts and juries in mold cases. Money paid out is money paid out and must be made up either from premiums, investment earnings, or reducing expenses in some way.

Questions have been raised concerning the losses by P&C companies from equity (stock market) investments. While the market reverses in the first part of this century certainly haven' helped the P&C companies, it is difficult to determine exactly what the impact has been as many of the companies report consolidated earnings. A cursory look at the financial statements of a couple of companies indicates that most of their investment appears to be in fixed income securities (bonds) rather than equities. This is a rational move as the companies ability to predict the need for liquidity at any point in time is low and fixed income investments offer better opportunities for liquidation as needed without taking a major financial loss as might be experienced if the investment was in equities.

IMPACT ON RESIDENTIAL SALES
With the dramatic increase in homeowners insurance premiums and the possibility of fewer companies making insurance available, real estate agents, particularly in residential real estate, now face new questions:

• Who is responsible for ensuring that the purchaser has a valid homeowners insurance policy?

• How much insurance should a homeowner purchase to provide adequate coverage? When should the insurance for a new home be obtained?

• How can we be sure that the insurance commitment issued by an independent insurance agent is not subject to cancellation by the P & C company?

• What are the responsibilities of the real estate agent, the buyer, and the seller?

SOME SUGGESTIONS FOR REAL ESTATE PROFESSIONALS
The following are some actions that a real estate agent might consider:

• All purchasers should be strongly encouraged to have their potential home inspected by a well qualified house inspector.

• Purchasers should be encouraged to line up homeowners insurances as soon as the contract is created is another possible action.

• Add the obtaining of reasonably priced homeowners insurance as a contingency just like obtaining financing.

• Warn purchasers that if they are obtaining their homeowners insurance through an independent insurance agent, that the company actually issuing the policy has a time period within which they can reject the policy. This leaves the homeowner without insurance coverage. If this occurs before closing then the sale will fall through. If the agent "promises" coverage shortly before closing, the company may decline the policy after closing the transaction. This leaves the new homeowner without hazard insurance and in default of their loan agreement. The lender could foreclose on the property. In any case, the situation will most likely lead to considerable heart burn and brain damage (not to mention the cost) before resolution. Lenders may begin to require that the hazard insurance be locked in before funding the loan. This will eliminate the declining of coverage after closing problem. However, this could delay closing while a P&C company makes a determination based on the request from an independent insurance agent.

Dr. Ramon Griffin is an associate professor of real estate and finance at the Metropolitan State College of Denver, Department of Finance. He has been teaching all areas of real estate and basic personal finance in higher education since 1971.
For more on this subject see:   Insurance Woes - A Quick Overview  By Penny Alston
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